渤、黄海生态环境模拟的参数敏感度空间差异分析     

罗辰奕  聂红涛  张海彦 《海洋学报》2019,41(8):85-96

随着海洋生态系统模型的发展，生态变量增多，众多生物过程参数量值的确定成为制约生态环境模拟的瓶颈问题，生态系统结构区域性要求模型中的生态参数具有区域差异。为探究不同海区的关键参数及参数敏感度的空间差异，本研究在渤、黄海建立了ROMS-CoSiNE物理–生物耦合的高分辨率生态系统模型，并对13种生态参数的敏感度空间分布进行分析。结果表明:南黄海中部与渤海及近岸海域的敏感度差异较大。渤海敏感度最大的参数为决定光合速率的浮游植物P-I曲线初始斜率，其次为浮游动物捕食半饱和常数和浮游动物最大捕食率。而南黄海中部敏感度最大的参数为浮游动物最大捕食率，其次为浮游植物死亡率和浮游植物P-I曲线初始斜率。结合敏感度分布及浮游植物生物量收支得出，渤海水体透明度较南黄海偏低、浮游植物生长光限制较强，是引起浮游植物P-I曲线初始斜率敏感度在渤海高于黄海的主要原因。浮游动物最大捕食率及浮游植物死亡率的敏感度空间差异，受渤、黄海浮游植物生物量差异的影响，与生态系统中的高度非线性特征有关。  相似文献   

Assessment of alternative adsorption models and global sensitivity analysis to characterize hexavalent chromium loss from soil to surface runoff          下载免费PDF全文

Chuan‐An Xia  Juxiu Tong  Bill X. Hu  Xiujie Wu  Alberto Guadagnini 《水文研究》2018,32(20):3140-3157

We investigate our ability to assess transfer of hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), from the soil to surface runoff by considering the effect of coupling diverse adsorption models with a two‐layer solute transfer model. Our analyses are grounded on a set of two experiments associated with soils characterized by diverse particle size distributions. Our study is motivated by the observation that Cr(VI) is receiving much attention for the assessment of environmental risks due to its high solubility, mobility, and toxicological significance. Adsorption of Cr(VI) is considered to be at equilibrium in the mixing layer under our experimental conditions. Four adsorption models, that is, the Langmuir, Freundlich, Temkin, and linear models, constitute our set of alternative (competing) mathematical formulations. Experimental results reveal that the soil samples characterized by the finest grain sizes are associated with the highest release of Cr(VI) to runoff. We compare the relative abilities of the four models to interpret experimental results through maximum likelihood model calibration and four model identification criteria (i.e., the Akaike information criteria [AIC and AIC_C] and the Bayesian and Kashyap information criteria). Our study results enable us to rank the tested models on the basis of a set of posterior weights assigned to each of them. A classical variance‐based global sensitivity analysis is then performed to assess the relative importance of the uncertain parameters associated with each of the models considered, within subregions of the parameter space. In this context, the modelling strategy resulting from coupling the Langmuir isotherm with a two‐layer solute transfer model is then evaluated as the most skilful for the overall interpretation of both sets of experiments. Our results document that (a) the depth of the mixing layer is the most influential factor for all models tested, with the exception of the Freundlich isotherm, and (b) the total sensitivity of the adsorption parameters varies in time, with a trend to increase as time progresses for all of the models. These results suggest that adsorption has a significant effect on the uncertainty associated with the release of Cr(VI) from the soil to the surface runoff component.  相似文献   

Sedimentary characteristics of tide-dominated estuary in Donghetang Formation（Upper Devonian）, central Tarim Basin     

WANG Li-ping LI Chuang TANG Bing-yong 《东北亚地学研究》2005,8(1):78-93

The Donghetang Formation （Upper Devonian） in central Tarim Basin has been thought an important oil and gas reservoir since the abundant oil and gas resources were found in the wells W16, W20, W34, and other fields. However, the sedimentary environment of the Donghetang Formation has been disputed because it suffered from both tidal and fluvial actions and there were not rich fossils in the sandstone. After the authors analyzed sedimentary features by means of drill cores, well logging data, paleosols, and with SEM obseruations, three kinds of sedimentary environments were distinguished： alluvial fan, tide-dominated estuary, and shelf. Particularly, the sedimentary features of tide-dominated estuary were studied in detail. Besides, the authors discussed sedimentary characteristics of the Donghetang Formation which was divided into two fourth-order sequences and five system tracts. At the same time, according to the forming process of five system tracts, the whole vertical evolution and lateral transition of tide-dominated estuary were illustrated clearly. Finally, the reservoir quality was evaluated based on porosity and permeability.  相似文献   

Upscaling of elastic properties for large scale geomechanical simulations     

F. Chalon  M. Mainguy  P. Longuemare  P. Lemonnier 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2004,28(11):1105-1119

Large scale geomechanical simulations are being increasingly used to model the compaction of stress dependent reservoirs, predict the long term integrity of under‐ground radioactive waste disposals, and analyse the viability of hot‐dry rock geothermal sites. These large scale simulations require the definition of homogenous mechanical properties for each geomechanical cell whereas the rock properties are expected to vary at a smaller scale. Therefore, this paper proposes a new methodology that makes possible to define the equivalent mechanical properties of the geomechanical cells using the fine scale information given in the geological model. This methodology is implemented on a synthetic reservoir case and two upscaling procedures providing the effective elastic properties of the Hooke's law are tested. The first upscaling procedure is an analytical method for perfectly stratified rock mass, whereas the second procedure computes lower and upper bounds of the equivalent properties with no assumption on the small scale heterogeneity distribution. Both procedures are applied to one geomechanical cell extracted from the reservoir structure. The results show that the analytical and numerical upscaling procedures provide accurate estimations of the effective parameters. Furthermore, a large scale simulation using the homogenized properties of each geomechanical cell calculated with the analytical method demonstrates that the overall behaviour of the reservoir structure is well reproduced for two different loading cases. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Sensitivity analysis of a deterministic water temperature model to forest canopy and soil temperature in Catamaran Brook (New Brunswick,Canada)     

Andr St‐Hilaire  Nassir El‐Jabi  Daniel Caissie  Guy Morin 《水文研究》2003,17(10):2033-2047

A coupled deterministic hydrological and water temperature model, CEQUEAU, was modified to include soil temperature and crown closure in its calculation of local advective terms in the heat budget. The modified model was than tested to verify its sensitivity to these modifications. An analysis of the heat budget of a small forested catchment in eastern Canada revealed that the advective term related to interflow plays a significant role in the daily water heat budget, providing on average 28% of the local advective budget (which also includes advective heat terms from surface runoff and groundwater) and nearly 14% of the total heat budget (which includes all radiative terms at the water surface, convection and evaporation, as well as the local advective terms). Relative sensitivity indices (RSIs) were used to verify the impact of the newly introduced parameters and variables. Among them, parameters related to the forest cover (crown closure and leaf area index) have a maximum RSI of ?0·6; i.e. a 100% increase in value produces a 60% decrease in the local advective term. Parameters with the greatest influence are the volume of water contributing to interflow and the amplitude of the net radiative flux at the soil surface, which, if doubled, would double the contribution of the local interflow advective term to the heat budget. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

鄂尔多斯盆地西峰地区长8砂岩微观非均质性的实验分析     

刘林玉  王震亮  柳益群 《岩矿测试》2008,27(1):29-32

通过真实砂岩微观模型实验,客观地分析了鄂尔多斯盆地西峰地区长8砂岩的微观非均质性特征,发现该区长8储层为致密型砂岩,直观地显示出长8砂岩储层具有很强的微观非均质性,砂岩的成岩作用和孔隙结构是影响鄂尔多斯盆地西峰地区长8砂岩储层微观非均质性的主要原因。在低渗透砂岩中,引起砂岩产生强烈的非均质性,而这些砂岩则形成长8砂岩储层的高渗带。  相似文献   

鄂尔多斯盆地东缘煤储层微孔隙结构特征及其影响因素   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

张松航  汤达祯  唐书恒  许浩  林文姬  张彪 《地质学报》2008,82(10):1341-1349

在对鄂尔多斯盆地东缘58套采自不同层位不同地域煤样显微组分测试和低温液氮比表面测试的基础上,从比表面积、吸附曲线形态、阶段孔径结构分布、阶段孔径比表面积贡献、FHH分形特征几个方面刻画了煤储层微孔隙特征。同时,就“孔比表面积—孔隙结构—煤物质组成与化学结构”这一因果链,分析了鄂尔多斯盆地东缘煤微孔隙特征与煤变质程度、煤岩显微组分以及矿物组分与类型的关系。研究发现,Ro在0.60%~1.91%范围内,比表面积及FHH分形分维数先明显降低,Ro至1.3%后又略有回升,同时吸附回线“滞后环”及分形尺度对应的压力范围明显减小,孔径3~4 nm“墨水瓶”型孔明显减少乃至消失,并成为比表面积减少的主要贡献者。在相似煤级条件下,惰质组分较镜质组分有更多的比表面积贡献。粘土矿物组分含量>10%时,孔径3~4 nm“墨水瓶”型孔对比表面贡献明显,且随煤级增高影响作用相对加大。  相似文献   

高、低煤阶煤层气藏地质特征及控气作用差异性研究   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

王勃  巢海燕  郑贵强  李景明  郭志斌  王红岩  刘洪林  李贵中 《地质学报》2008,82(10):1396-1401

高、低煤阶煤层气地质特征及控气作用差异性是研究煤层气富集成藏的重要组成部分,是煤层气勘探开发理论研究过程中重要的基础性研究领域之一。本文以中国沁水、阜新盆地和美国粉河盆地等典型的含气盆地为例,探讨了高、低煤阶煤层气的储层物性差异,分析了构造控气和水文地质控气作用的差异性。研究表明,高煤阶气藏含气量高,CH4百分含量高,δ13C1值大于-38.75‰,储层渗透率变化小,储层改造难,构造热事件对煤层气的生成、富集贡献大,持续的水动力使气藏遭到破坏,且破坏幅度大,现今地下水格局对气藏的形成具有一定的影响;低煤阶气藏含气量低,CH4百分含量低,δ13C1值大于-49.11‰,储层渗透率变化大,储层易改造,煤热演化史及煤阶影响着煤层气的生成、富集,在煤层气生成过程中活跃的水动力是甲烷生成的主要的水文地质条件之一,但持续的水动力使气藏遭到破坏,且破坏幅度小,而合适的地层水矿化度则是低煤阶煤层气生成的重要条件,地下水格局对气藏的调整和改造起到决定性的影响。  相似文献   

北方泥炭沼泽中酚类物质释放的热敏感性研究:以英国威尔士地区雨养和矿养泥炭沼泽为例     

向武  Chris Freeman 《地球化学》2008,37(2):157-164

利用高精度多梯度热培养系统,对英国威尔士地区两类典型的北方泥炭沼泽中酚类物质和溶解有机碳释放的热敏感性进行了为期1年的调查研究.研究结果表明,雨养泥炭沼泽(Bog)酚类物质释放的热敏感性Q10(总酚)月变化为0.92～1.57,而矿养泥炭沼泽(Fen)的月变化范围为0.93～1.30.酚类释放的热敏感性与土壤温度大致呈正相关关系.此外,土壤温度与溶解有机碳释放的热敏感性Q10(DOC)也呈正相关关系.总体上,雨养泥炭沼泽的热敏感性比矿养泥炭沼泽略高.除温度外,水文条件和植被等多种环境因子对酚类物质和溶解有机碳释放的热敏感性也有较大影响.研究结果还表明酚碳热敏感性比值Q10o(总酚)/Q10(DOC)相对稳定,土壤温度的变化对其影响有限.  相似文献   

松辽盆地尚家—太平川地区石油地质条件及勘探方向分析   总被引：17，自引：9，他引：8       下载免费PDF全文

施立志  林铁锋  吴海波  王卓卓  祁越 《地质科学》2008,43(3):558-568

通过对尚家—太平川地区构造演化、烃源岩特征、沉积特征、储盖组合、油水关系及油藏类型和油气成藏特征的分析,研究了本区的石油地质条件,认为烃源岩具有较好的生、排烃能力,分流河道砂体为油气聚集提供较好的沉积环境,良好的储盖组合有利于油气的聚集与保存。研究区没有统一油水界面,尚家地区以岩性—构造油藏为主,太平川地区以构造—岩性油藏为主。区内扶余—杨大城子油层油气成藏受有效性圈闭、优势运移通道、过剩压力、储集条件和构造诱导作用控制。据上述认识确定了研究区下一步的勘探方向,并已在指导勘探实践中取得了较好的效果。  相似文献